U.S. will lose an Olympic game (or games)

After watching exhibitions and the first two Olympics games (against host China and Angola), it all looked deflating and familiar. The U.S. remains a collection of all-stars, albeit highly talented all-stars, who are dependent on pressure defense.

Here’s five reasons the U.S. will lose a game (or maybe more than one game) at the Olympics:

1. Poor perimter shooting. Opponents know to clog the lane and take their chances on the U.S. shooting from the perimeter. In the first two games, the U.S. made only 12 of 45 three-point shots. That’s 26.7-percent accuracy. Maybe worse, the U.S. takes more contested threes than the opposition.

2. Poor free-throw shooting. The U.S. has made 68 percent of its free throws. As the competition gets better (starting with Spain, Greece and Germany the rest of this week), the games will get closer and each missed free throw will loom larger.

3. Poor rebounding. The U.S., which is relatively small, has been outrebounded through two games. And did we mention that the better competition lies ahead.

4. Too much gambling. The U.S. has feasted on poor guard play by China and Angola. That’s enabled the U.S. to get away with going for steals, and then being out of position. The better teams will keep control of the ball and set up open shooters.

5. It’s a different game. This is the big reason. International teams are used to the trapezoid lane and setting up open perimeter shots. The U.S. plays basketball as a one-on-one exercise in athleticism. Without a low-post option (and facing a defense condensed in the lane), the U.S. struggles in a halfcourt setting.